The latest polling out of Virginia, Ohio and Florida paint a troubling picture for Mr. Romney just 7 weeks from the election. Romney is down 5 in Virginia and Florida and down 7 in Ohio. Not only that, but this poll was taken before he made an ass of himself at the attack on the Libyan consulate. I’ve sensed that he was losing strength in Ohio [or at least in my neck of the woods] just last Saturday as I spent 4 hours knocking on doors. People on my walk-sheet marked ‘persuade’ turned out, in fact, to be good supporters of the President.
I might argue or ask the question: who in the hell hasn’t made up their mind by now? The choices are polar opposites; either you believe that government has an important role in your life or you don’t. So-called swing voters or independents have been paying attention, which is why they are delineated as such. One in eight Ohioans are connected to the auto industry and here in Lucas County, that ratio is much tighter. Just this week, Ford said that they will need 1200 workers for increased production at a facility 20 miles north of here. “Let Detroit go bankrupt” hammered many nails in Romney’s coffin.
Here’s an additional problem facing Mr. Romney. Everyone knows that there will be a major $$$ blitz in negative advertising during the last weeks of the race. Those super pacs will flood the airways with grainy, black-and-white photos of President Obama accompanied by scary voice-overs. The trouble is, Ohioans are already filled to the gills with that type of advertising; we’ve seen it for months now. It may just do more harm than good for the Romney campaign. And, positive ads for the Romney/Ryan ticket have been scarce. After all, what message do they have for Ohio voters?
The Florida spread is unusually wide; perhaps the seniors in the center and southern end of the state understand what the Romney/Ryan [or Ryan] Plan means for their trusted entitlement programs. How does Romney cauterize that gaping gash inflicted by the Ryan Budget that essentially ends these government entitlements? Maybe his choice of Ryan wasn’t so smart after all.
No doubt that the Obama Team will want to force the Romney Camp to spend precious time in Florida while they still have that 5-point advantage. While Romney spends time and resources in the Sunshine State, he will not be able to bring his message to other ‘swing’ states. Play around with the CNN Electoral Map, clicking on gold colored states, turning them red or blue. Watch the blue and red bars at the top. If you turn Ohio blue, President Obama is 15 points from 270. Mr. Romney is stuck at 191. If Florida turns blue, the President moves into his 2nd term. As Bill Clinton said, ‘It’s arithmetic.’