Lately there has been much speculation and political musing about the outcome of the 2012 presidential race here on Man With the Muckrake. To me, it essentially boils down to a 4-letter word: Ohio. The regular readers of this blog have been shown the various ways that President Obama can retain the White House through an array of electoral college combinations. Further, it is also evident that Mitt Romney’s chances of gaining the 270 electoral number are not as varied; they all flow through Ohio.
Simply put: Ohio is the key to a Romney presidency.
The problem that Mr. Romney faces is that President Obama collected 365 electoral votes to a mere 173 for John McCain. There was a 10 million vote plurality for then senator Obama as well, although that does not ‘count’ in our archaic election system. The website 270towin.com is helpful in the pre-election analysis.
Two hundred seventy is the number needed to secure the victory. Mr. Romney will have to shave 97 electoral votes off from the 2008 ‘blue states.’ Some will be easy- Indiana is already rustic; North Carolina and Virginia, blue surprises in 2008, may turn red once again. But those 3 states whittle off only 39 of those 97. Where are the other 58? Even giving Florida to Romney still leaves a void of 31. Ohio’s 18 votes loom large in any Romney victory scenario.
Here is the county map of Ohio after the 2008 election:
That sea of red occurs in the rural areas of Ohio; they will remain red. There are few resources and a pittance of Obama surrogates assigned to these areas of the state. The blue areas, mostly urban and densely suburban, are the key to an Obama victory. The President’s hopes lie in protecting [maintaining] the vote in Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Toledo, Dayton, Canton and Akron. Here are his numbers; Romney needs to whittle these down significantly to turn the 2008 percentages [51.5% 46.9%] his way. That’s 260,000 votes.
There are 19 Obama re-election offices already in operation in Ohio. Actually 20 because Toledo just added a 2nd office.
In a few weeks, as the college year comes to an end, hundreds of college students from around the country will be flowing into Ohio from ‘safe’ states such as New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Washington, Oregon and California. Here in the Toledo area, there is already a ‘housing’ committee dedicated to finding homes for these interns. Later this summer and early Fall, many other ‘safe state’ volunteers will be joining the Ohio teams. Not only from ‘safe states,; but from solid-red states too. My friend from Mississippi surely will want to come to Ohio this Fall to campaign for the President. Ohio will be the happening place this Fall. Check it out for yourself!
Here’s the Ohio cheer:
leader: Fired up! [Fired up! repeat]
leader: Ready to go! [Ready to go! repeat]
leader: Fired up!